Rachel - still one of the CONSISTENTLY fastest fillies ever!

So you are disappointed that Rachel came in second in the New Orleans Ladies? DON'T BE. She had a relatively high Beyer Speed Figure considering she was reportedly only 85% in shape!

You've perhaps heard that Rachel Alexandra scored the highest Beyer Speed Figure (116) of ANY North American racehorse last year - 2009? Well, here are her breakdowns for Beyer Speed figures for her most recent races:

2010
New Orleans Ladies           100

2009
Woodward                         109
Haskell                               116
Mother Goose                     111
Preakness                           108
Kentucky Oaks                    108
Fantasy                              101
Fair Grounds Oaks              103
Martha Washington             100

To give you an idea of what this means, Zenyatta's career best Beyer Speed Figure was when she beat the boys in the Classic last year (2009), at 112. Here are some other recent 3 yo filly champs and their top BSFs during their 3 yo filly season:

2008 Proud Spell – Tops of 101, 99, 99, 97
2007 Rags to Riches – Tops of 107, 104, 98, 96
2006 Wait A While -Her accomplishments came on turf. Dirt top of 90
2005 Smuggler - Tops of 98, 94, 93, 92 in season that ended in July.
2004 Ashado – Tops of 106, 103, 103, 102
2003 Bird Town -Tops of 101, 100, 100, 100
2002 Farda Amiga -Tops of 103, 103, 100, 95

As far as older fillies & mares, clearly they have run faster due to maturity, but what Rachel is capable of putting out this year remains to be seen.

FYI - Male horses may have higher BSF than female horses. Here are some famous horses and their BSF, just for comparison:
Bernardini- Career high 117
Big Brown - Career high 109
Discreet Cat- Career high of 115
Invasor- Career high 113
Lava Man- Career high 120
Lawyer Ron- Career high 105
Monarchos - Career high 116
Perfect Drift- Career high 117
Smarty Jones - Career high 118
Secretariat - if there was speed figures back then, he would have got 139 in the Belmont
 
According to Andy Beyer himself, Ruffian was probably the fastest filly ever. He guestimates that Ruffian's career high BSF would probably be 120+ scored during one of her 2-year-old races. ...But Rachel comes a pretty close second!!!

Rachel is pulled out of the Apple Blossom

Rachel Alexandra will not face unbeaten mare Zenyatta in the proposed $5 million Apple Blossom at Arkansas' Oaklawn Park on April 9. Yesterday Rachel was upset by little-known Zardana by three-quarters of a length in the $200,000 New Orleans Ladies at the Fair Grounds. Zenyatta, meanwhile, extended her endefeated wins to 15-for-15 when she won the Santa Margarita Invitational less than an hour later.

"Yesterday's race while a disappointment, helped us define Rachel Alexandra's racing condition. While she is healthy, just as I had anticipated, she is not in top form. Therefore, I decided today she will not be going to the Oaklawn Invitational on April 9. Steve and I discussed this fully and we now regret we tried to accelerate her training in order meet the Apple Blossom schedule. We have a whole season before us to help define her greatness. She will tell us when her next race will be."

"She's not where we want physically," trainer Steve Asmsusen said. "That most likely eliminates the Apple Blossom. We're not comfortable with how she responded to the accelerated program, so we're going to continue to train her at Fair Grounds and see what happens. She's clearly not up to her previous level. We're going to regroup and come back again. The disappointment from yesterday continues."

Rachel Alexandra tired late in her first race after six-month layoff.

"She blew after the race, but she wasn't exhausted," Asmussen said, "She drank plenty of water afterwards. It took her a little while to leave the test barn, but she went back to the barn comfortably. She went right to her feed tub last night, and she was in very good health this morning."

New Orleans Ladies: Rachel loses to Zardana in her 2010 debut

The New Orleans Ladies is a new race designed by officials at Fair Grounds Race Track specifically in hopes that Rachel would remain where she was training and run her first start of her 4-year-old career. It is yet an ungraded race, and has the highest purse of any ungraded race.

On March 13, 2010, in front of a crowd of more than 12,000 (the largest at the track since the rebuilt grandstand opened in 1997), Rachel Alexandra shocked everyone by coming in second by 3/4 of a length to Zardana in her first race of the 2010 year in the ungraded 1 1/16 miles $200,000 New Orleans Ladies at Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans, Louisiana. Jockey Calvin Borel took Rachel into a stalking position behind Fighter Wing and let her go at the top of the stretch. The problem was that she was too tired by then and could not jet out in high gear like she did in past races. Borel did not ask much more of Rachel when Zardana went past her in the last furlong.

Interestingly, Zardana's finishing time was EXACTLY (to the 5th of a second) the same as Rachel's finishing time in the Fair Grounds Oaks she ran just a year ago as a 3 year old on the same track. And in that race, Rachel was being eased already at the 16th pole!
Video: Fair Grounds Oaks, March 14, 2009

 The unthinkable happens when Rachel comes in second to Zardana

Borel said he was given instructions to wait until the 16th pole before making his move. The rider said he and Rachel could have passed by Fighter Wing earlier. His comments hinted that he wanted to run with her earlier.

“You know how I know she’s a real racehorse? She was beat [tired] when that other horse when by her but she didn’t quit. She dug in and fought right back and stayed with the winner the rest of the way. That’s the kind of racehorse she is. My little filly tried her heart out.” Rachel gave her best shot. It was 11-1/2 lengths from Rachel back to the 3rd place finisher, which means Zardana was better than we all thought she was.

"She needed the race, that's all," Borel said, "She needed the race more than anything." Six months, a half a year, off racing has turned out to be too long for Rachel. Steve Asmussen, her trainer, took the blame for the loss:

"She was strong early and got tired," Rachel Alexandra trainer Steve Asmussen said. "I'm just disappointed she didn't win today. It was a lack of fitness and it's our job to have her there and I didn't do it." Because of the outcome of this race, he has also said it is less likely Rachel will run in the Apple Blossom.

“How tired she is off of that will be established in the coming days,” Asmussen said after the race. “She’s not where I thought she was and if I had thought she’d get beat she wouldn’t run. You take her back, you evaluate her, you see how her mood is, her diet, how she goes back to the racetrack, how she breezes. No crystal ball could see that far ahead.”

There's no shame in a Horse of the Years' first loss. Rachel is in great company. The following horses were all Horse of the Year, but then lost their first start back: Ferdinand, Lady's Secret, John Henry, All Along, Affirmed and Kelso.

In fact, Kelso who holds the record for winning the most Horse of the Year titles (in 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963 and 1964) has an interesting and encouraging statistic: Every single year he won the award, he lost the first start of the next year. Rachel is simply in company with many of the all-time greats!!

Sizing up Rachel's competition in the New Orleans Ladies

Should we be concerned about the competition in Tomorrow's New Orleans Ladies? Let's look at their profiles:

Zardana winning the Bayakoa 2009

ZARDANA (at 5-1 odds) is listed as a 6-year-old now, but because she’s South American-bred she’s really only five and a half. She was foaled on Sept. 12. She is a Brazilian mare out of Irish Crimson Tide. She is most noted for winning the Grade 2 Bayakoa Handicap last December at Santa Anita. However, that was the only graded race she has ever won. She has won 6 other races but they were ungraded. She placed just out of the money at the Santa Maria Handicap last month.

CLEAR SAILING (at 6-1 odds) is a lightly raced 4 year old mare out of Empire Maker. She is finished 3rd in her first start and then first in the next 3 races, including breaking her her maiden, an allowance race, and the Pelleteri (last month). At the November 17, 2009 Keeneland breeding stock sale, Clear Sailing brought a top price of $255,000 in the session.

UNFORGOTTEN (at 15-1 odds) is a 6 year old mare out of Northern Afleet who has not won a race since 2008. She won 4 races as a young filly, but her last win was the spring of 2008, 2 years ago! Since then the best she could do was to place 2nd in three Grade 3 races (one of which interestingly was ridden by Calvin Borel) and one ungraded race.

FIGHTER WING (at 15-1 odds) is a 5 year old mare, another Empire Maker daughter. In the Pelleteri, she showed some early speed and ran in front until the final 16th, and finished 2nd after Clear Sailing. She has mostly ran in allowance races and has come in 4th or 5th.

Rachel Alexandra's odds - history

For the New Orleans Ladies, Rachel Alexandra is the prohibitive odds on favorite: 1-9. How did the professional handicappers rate Rachel in her past races? Here's a look at her odds (a the BEGINNING of her race) in her past races:
New Orleans Ladies        1-9   favorite (became 1-20 later)
Woodward                     3-10  favorite
Haskell                          1-2   favorite
Mother Goose                1-9   favorite
Preakness                      9-5   favorite
Kentucky Oaks               1-5   favorite
Fantasy                         1-10  favorite
Fair grounds Oaks          1-5   favorite
Martha Washington        2-5   favorite
Golden Rod                   3-1  
Pocahontas                    2-1   co-favorite
Keeneland Allowance      5-2
Debutante                         ?
MSW                            12-1
MSW                               ?

A Comparison of Rachel's and Zenyatta's workouts since their last race

Rachel Alexandra

Date         Track   Dist. Time       Surface   Condition______Rank
3/8/2010   FG      4F       :49.00   Dirt        Fast          B        13/105
3/2/2010   FG      6F     1:13.60   Dirt        Fast          B         1/2
2/24/2010 FG      6F     1:14.00   Dirt        Fast          B         1/2
2/18/2010 FG      5F     1:00.20   Dirt        Fast          B        2/20
2/12/2010 FG      5F     1:03.80   Dirt        Sloppy       B        2/2
2/6/2010   FG      4F       :50.60   Dirt        Fast          B         51/76
1/31/2010 FG      4F       :52.00   Dirt        Fast          B         88/101


Zenyatta

Date           Track  Dist.  Time       Surface        Condition____Rank
3/5/2010    HOL   6F     1:11.80   All Weather Fast        H      1/13
2/26/2010  HOL   6F     1:13.20   All Weather Fast        B      4/15
2/18/2010  HOL   6F     1:14.00   All Weather Fast        B      1/4
2/11/2010  HOL   6F     1:13.80   All Weather Fast        B      2/5
2/3/2010    HOL   5F     1:01.60   All Weather Fast        B      5/8
1/25/2010  HOL   5F     1:00.20   All Weather Fast        B     10/74
1/17/2010  HOL   5F     1:01.40   All Weather Fast        B     22/47
1/6/2010    HOL   4F       :48.00   All Weather Fast        H     5/18
12/21/2009HOL   4F       :49.40   All Weather Fast        B    19/35
12/7/2009  HOL   4F       :50.40   All Weather Fast        B      8/17


B = Breeze; H = Handily