Why Zenyatta might be the biggest challenge ever for Rachel

I am a Rachel fan, hands down. But Zenyatta is not to be taken lightly. Here are some reasons why:

1) Zenyatta beat some top horses in the Breeders Cup 2009: Rip Van Winkle, Gio Ponti, Einstein, Summer Bird, Mine That Bird, Colonel John. Granted, this can be explained away because of the unpredictability of the artificial surface. But, what if it would have happened anyway, regardless of the surface? Hm.

2) Zenyatta's wins against mares has mostly been in handicap where she was carrying ridiculously high weights, sometimes spotting her rivals up to 18 pounds. How fast can she be without all that weight on her?

3) Zenyatta has been training and working out almost every week since her Breeders Cup win. She is in top shape. Rachel has not been working out. She raced in September 2009, rested in October, rested in November, was scheduled to start training in December but oh the rain! The rain in New Orleans where she is staying was record breaking in December and higher than normal in January, and that has prevented her from having scheduled workouts. She has had only 3 workouts since her last race: twice at only 4 furlongs and once at 5 furlongs.

On the other hand: Rachel Alexandra has won by 20+ lengths against other fillies. She has won by a total margin of 64-1/2 and a head in her last 8 races. She is so terrifying that her competition in her last distaff race was only 2 horses. Let's hope that Louisiana has some unusually dry weather in February and March so she can be decently prepared for April!