We are revved up from Rachel's win in the Fleur de Lis. We Rachel-lovers are already chomping at the bit to see her next race. Which one will it be? Well, there are 4-1/2 months until the breeder's cup. Her connections seem to be developing a pattern of racing her every 1-1/2 months. That means that, if they are consistent, they will run her around August 1st, then September 15th, then November in the Breeders Cup. This is all extrapolation and speculations, but hey, I don't get paid for writing this stuff and I can't fire myself, so what have I got to lose? Here goes:
Well, the ideal race would be a 1-1/8 (or even a 1-1/4 mile race,) set on dirt, Grade 1, around August 1st. Why do I say possibly 1-1/4? Because Jess Jackson wants her to win the Breeder's Cup CLASSIC which is a 1-1/4 mile race. A full furlong more can make a difference for a horse and perhaps they want to get her used to that new distance, BUT more likely, though, they will stick with the 1-1/8 for at least the next race.
Here are some possibilities for her next race:
1- 8/1/2010 (Grade 1) 1-1/16 mile $300,000 Ruffian Handicap (for fillies and mares 3 & up) at Saratoga - This would be perfect timing for her, but a little short on distance. Running in a Grade 1 distaff might be a further confidence booster at this point. This seems to be the race in which most news outlets are guessing she will run.
2- 8/7/2010 (Grade 1) 1-1/8 mile $750,000 Whitney Handicap (open to 3 year olds & up) at Saratoga - This is the perfect distance, and not bad timing. I am not sure how her connections feel about running her with boys this soon. The anticipated competition will include Quality Road and should be stiffer than the other races mentioned here.
3- 7/17/2010 (Grade 2) 1-1/4 mile $1,000,000 Delaware Handicap (for fillies and mares 3 & up) at Delaware Park - Well the money is good, the distance is interesting, but the timing is a bit too close to her last race (not consistent with the way JJ is spacing them out), and it is a grade 2. JJ might not want to run her the longer distance this soon.
If you have other ideas, please let me know in the comments section what other races YOU think we might add to the list as possibilities for her next race.
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Despite the timing, I think she should run in the Del Cap. It would give them a chance to see how she performs at 10F, and give her another chance to get ready for the boys.
ReplyDeleteIf only it was a G1 though. It's a shame there aren't many more 10F graded stakes races for fillies&mares...
She is just getting back to form..... yesterday was her first 1 1/8 for 2010....probably should run another 1 1/8 and look for 1 1/2 in middle of September. It's going to depend on how she trains and if they can get her to rate and run comfortably as to whether they try the 1 1/4 next. Jackson isn't like Moss who only likes grade ones, a grade two wouldn't make a difference to him if he thought it would benifit Rachel and move her towards the Breeders Cup. I heard today that they don't have any plans to run the Big Z outside of California until the Breeders Cup.....I thought they stated "she was going to travel for this years campigan".
ReplyDeletePixie, I think you are right on the three possibilities. Each has its own strengths and weaknesses. I could see the Delaware having two strenths. First, the purse size is right. Second, they can measure her at the mile and a quarter. I don't think the near 5-week gap is too bad although not ideal. The Ruffian seems to me to be least attractive of the three because of the smaller purse and the lesser distance of 1 1/16. That seems to be going the wrong way distance wise. The Whitney may be a good spot, but if Quality Road is going there, it will be interesting to see if they want to face him before the Breeders Cup. It may be too early for that but if QR is not there the chances of the Whitney go way up. I was wrong on the Fleur de lis, so take my prediction with a grain of salt, but I predict they go with the Delaware. (Whitney second choice, with Ruffian 3rd).
ReplyDeleteAlso, I think part of the reason why Zenyatta won't travel until the Breeders Cup (if she even comes) is because travel is harder on her than most horses. She lost quite a bit of weight that she never got back after the Apple Blossom. She had a great win in the Vanity on Sunday but she really looks vulnerable now. She was full out (stick and all) and barely won. Her late speed ration (LSR) has been deteriorating since the Clement Hirsch last year. Don't expect her connections to be taking any risks with her.
ReplyDeleteYou're right about Zenyatta, Mike Smith was all out on her. Rachel was hand ridden, in swealtering heat (index was over 100 with high humidity), eased up near the finish line, and still had a better time. They aren't looking to run Zenyatta against the boys either until the Breeders Cup. I would like to see Rachel run 1 1/4, but not unless her works improve after the last race. I don't think they will shorten the distance and go to 1 1/16. I can hardley wait to hear how she came out of the Fleur de lis and if she moves forward. If she does, it wouldn't supprise me if Jackson would run her against Quality Road (isn't he better a the mile distance and the mile and 1/4??? Rachel seems to run better at the 1 1/8 then the 1 1/16. She is breed for distance......it will be interesting.
ReplyDeleteThe Personal Ensign could also be an option.
ReplyDeleteIt's a G1 at 10F, but oddly enough only has a purse of 400K, as opposed to the 750K purse of the G2 Del Cap...
However this race is the third week in August, so she'd either have a really long layoff, or have one race before... Which would mean that she'd be running twice in 2 months.
Rachel's Beyer figures: A comparison
ReplyDelete2009 (for first three races)
Race #1 100
Race #2 103
Race #3 101
2010
Race #1 100
Race #2 103
Race #3 108
Seems like Rachel may be ahead of last year. When she starts running over 110 look out!
Well...i think that she should race in the ruffian because i heard from another blog that zenyatta might go for the ruffian...and its a good time and distance for a prep for BC
ReplyDeleteI would love to see Rachel in the Ruffian two great fillies forever linked..hope to be there..
ReplyDelete