After La Troienne, all of us Rachel fans were in disbelief she did not win again. But, upon closer analysis of the facts, I've come to a conclusion that Rachel Alexandra is still one of the best fillies this year. Let's examine her finishing times and her Beyer Speed Figures in her last 2 races. (And just for kicks, throw Zenyatta's speed figures in there)
BEYER SPEED FIGURES
Rachel Alexandra Zenyatta
2010 2010
La Troienne 103 Apple Blossom 95
New Orleans Ladies 100 Santa Margarita 102
2009
Woodward 109
Haskell 116
Mother Goose 111
Preakness 108
Kentucky Oaks 108
Fantasy 101
Fair Grounds Oaks 103
Martha Washington 100
Although she lost the La Troienne last Friday (by between a nose and a head), her finishing time was a little over a second away from the Churchill Downs track record for that distance! That put her (and Unrivaled Belle's) Beyer Speed Figure at 103! This was the career best speed figure for Unrivaled Belle. In the New Orleans Ladies, Rachel came in second, losing by a head. Zardana, who won, had her career best speed figure of 101 in that race as well! The two horses that beat Rachel, by such a small margin, both had career best races when they competed against Rachel. It took a career best race for both horses to narrowly beat Rachel, who by all reports was only racing at only 85% and 90%. Yet in those same races where she came a close second, she achieved respectable speed figures over 100.
Just for fun, let's compare Rachel's speed figures with Zenyatta's speed figures. Zenyatta achieved a speed figure of 95 in the Apple Blossom early April of this year. That was the slowest speed figure Zenyatta has run in the last 2 years, and the lowest Apple Blossom speed figure in 21 years! In her prior race, the "Santa Margarita" in March of this year, her beyer speed figure was 102. Of course, with deep closers like Zenyatta, we can't judge by speed figures alone, but nevertheless, speed figures do show the level of the field she was competing against was not even close to Rachel's class. Winning against such a weak field may not really prove all that much. I like Zenyatta, but I would rather her owners put her in more challenging races with stronger fields.
Rachel has not lost her touch at all! On the contrary, she is still a very fast horse! She is just near the beginning of her season so we can even expect some more improvements as the year progresses!
For further information, see:
http://rachelalexandrafan.blogspot.com/2010/03/rachel-still-one-of-consistently.html
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After I began researching her splits, race time, listened to interviews etc.. I feel A lot better about Rachel's performance in the La Troienne. She's improving each race, after quite some time off over the winter. Improvement is all we can ask for. I agree, Rachel is and will show all those gals, that she is indeed still one of the best filly/mare's racing this year.
ReplyDeleteThere are happy days to come for Rachel and her fans. She will be throwing 110-15 Beyers by the Fall. Critics will be proven wrong. I also think she will race again next year.
ReplyDeleteDear PixiePoet (and anyone else who cares to comment): Why do you think that she has not returned back to her form from last year? I do not think it is Calvin, but rather suspect Asmussen and JJ's handling of her since her extended "vacation". Asmussen was even mentioning her weight as a factor! Come on!
ReplyDeleteI took a day off from work to see her race, so needless to say, I was bitterly disappointed. I am still her best fan, and am hoping to see her win many more races, but something is amiss.
RachelAlex, I think it's a combination of things. Asmussen says she still has a hangover from the campaign last year and the Woodward in particular. Plus the 5-month layoff is huge. Another thing to remember is that Jackson is not into win streaks. He is looking for progress that will put her in position to win the Grade 1's in the summer/fall and the Breeders Cup. If she's running in the low 100s for Beyers now they have every reason to think she can start running 110s when she's really fit. And when you're running near 110 you're going to win almost every race and some easily. The main issue now is getting her explosiveness back. That's the main trick. She used to open up 2-3 lengths on the turn, now she just opens 1 length before she gets jumped. Think long term and don't let the Rachel bashers get you down. She's coming back. Jackson has his competitive juices going and as he said, there's now way she's retiring. She's just getting started. She'll probably run next year as well.
ReplyDeleteDear mvlach77: Thank you for the clarification. Again, I am a racing novice, but have seen all of her races, and it seems to me in watching the last two, that Calvin was holding her back way too long into the race. And he needs to stop whipping her so much. I have also read bloggers who comment on the fact that they have too much "hardware" in her mouth now.
ReplyDeleteI am also concerned that if she has lost her "mojo" and they retire her, she will not make the Hall of Fame a few years down the road.
I live 45 minutes from Saratoga, saw her in the Woodward, and am looking forward to seeing her there this summer, the horse gods be willing.
RachelAlex, I think you're right that they're holding her back. I don't like it but they are trying to get her to rate. I think they're worried that if she doesn't relax and rate she won't be able to win at a mile and a quarter in the Breeders Cup Classic. I wish they'd let her run quicker up front and go back to "Catch me if you can!"
ReplyDeleteDear mvlach77: could you please tell me what getting her to rate means? I have seen this expression in many articles and blogs and I really don't have a clear idea of this term. I tried Googling it, but found nothing. I would appreciate it since you seem to know a lot about racing (and dear Rachel). Thank you.
ReplyDelete@RachelAlex: To "rate" means getting the horse to run slower near the beginning of the race so the horse has enough energy to run faster near the end of the race. It is a good strategy because toward the end of the race, many who ran too fast at the beginning will tire out and the slower runners can use their reserve of energy that they saved to outrun them. (Like Zenyatta does).
ReplyDelete@RachelAlex: addressing your first question as to why I think she has not returned to her form from last year, my personal opinion is the 6 months layoff from racing is to blame. She was not able to have decent workouts for not weeks, but MONTHS. And no races from the Woodward in September 2009 to New Orleans Ladies in March 2010. She is out of shape. It will take her a while to regain strength, stamina, and speed and adjust to a more mature body. She definitely needs more workouts and perhaps needs to be re-trained somewhat (I am specifically talking about her taking too long to change leads after the far turn)
ReplyDeletePixie, I think it's interesting that Rachel's Beyer figures are exactly the same for her first two races this year as they were last year--100 and 103.
ReplyDeleteGood observation Mike. If her speed figure increase like they did last year, she will be silencing all the naysayers soon enough. And even if she keeps throwing out 103's (which I doubt she would stay at that number), that is still enough to win most distaffs.
ReplyDeleteRegardless of what Andy Beyer says, you need to add 5 points to any synthetic speed figure to get the comparable dirt speed figure. So Zenyatta's Santa Margarita was really the equivalent of a 107 Dirt Beyer.
ReplyDeleteThat being said, Rachel's 100 and 103 aren't terrible and still puts her among the best in the sport. However, a 4yo should improve pretty substantially over her 3yo numbers and it's clear that she hasn't improved at all.
She is running with her head cocked to the right side. I don't know what that means, but she didn't do it last year.
I'd hate to see her retired, but she just isn't the same dominating filly as last year.
Rachel is incredible I thank all who have posted as I have learned and keep learning so much from all of you..
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