What Next for Rachel Alexandra?

We are revved up from Rachel's win in the Fleur de Lis. We Rachel-lovers are already chomping at the bit to see her next race. Which one will it be? Well, there are 4-1/2 months until the breeder's cup. Her connections seem to be developing a pattern of racing her every 1-1/2 months. That means that, if they are consistent, they will run her around August 1st, then September 15th, then November in the Breeders Cup. This is all extrapolation and speculations, but hey, I don't get paid for writing this stuff and I can't fire myself, so what have I got to lose? Here goes:

Well, the ideal race would be a 1-1/8 (or even a 1-1/4 mile race,) set on dirt, Grade 1, around August 1st. Why do I say possibly 1-1/4? Because Jess Jackson wants her to win the Breeder's Cup CLASSIC which is a 1-1/4 mile race. A full furlong more can make a difference for a horse and perhaps they want to get her used to that new distance, BUT more likely, though, they will stick with the 1-1/8 for at least the next race.

Here are some possibilities for her next race:
1- 8/1/2010 (Grade 1) 1-1/16 mile $300,000 Ruffian Handicap (for fillies and mares 3 & up) at Saratoga - This would be perfect timing for her, but a little short on distance. Running in a Grade 1 distaff might be a further confidence booster at this point. This seems to be the race in which most news outlets are guessing she will run.
2- 8/7/2010 (Grade 1) 1-1/8 mile $750,000 Whitney Handicap (open to 3 year olds & up) at Saratoga - This is the perfect distance, and not bad timing. I am not sure how her connections feel about running her with boys this soon. The anticipated competition will include Quality Road and should be stiffer than the other races mentioned here.
3- 7/17/2010 (Grade 2) 1-1/4 mile $1,000,000 Delaware Handicap (for fillies and mares 3 & up) at Delaware Park - Well the money is good, the distance is interesting, but the timing is a bit too close to her last race (not consistent with the way JJ is spacing them out), and it is a grade 2. JJ might not want to run her the longer distance this soon.

If you have other ideas, please let me know in the comments section what other races YOU think we might add to the list as possibilities for her next race.

Fleur de Lis 2010

On a hot (mid 90's), partly-cloudy, and muggy afternoon on June 12, 2010, as the 1-5 favorite in a five horse field, Rachel Alexandra ran the 1-1/8 mile $214,000 (Grade 2) Fleur de Lis at Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky. Toting the high weight of 124-lbs, Rachel Alexandra with regular jockey Calvin Borel aboard took a stalking position beside Jessica is Back for nearly 7 furlongs, repelled an advancing Distinctive Dixie entering into the stretch, and won by 10-1/2 lengths in a time of 1:48.78 on a listed fast track. Her time was faster than her Kentucky Oaks victory last year, and faster than the winner of the Stephen Foster today!

The final results:
1- Rachel Alexandra
2- Distinctive Dixie
3- Jessica is Back
4- Multipass
5- Made for Magic

Rachel's fractional times were a quarter mile in 23:93, a half mile in 47:25, 6 furlongs in 1:11.16, a mile in 1:35.90 and she ran her last furlong in 12:88. Her Beyer Speed Figure was 109, the highest that day and also the highest so far for a filly or mare this year.

“She did everything right today,” Borel said. “(Trainer) Steve (Asmussen) told me just to run my race and see where we're at. She showed up today. She felt the same. I just don’t think she was ready before. Steve knows what he’s doing. She was perfect and we couldn’t ask for more.”

"This is Rachel," Asmussen said. "She's a very special horse, has proven to be so. Hopefully she has a lot of chapters left to write in her life ... She's a machine and she ran a great race today, and hopefully this is a step in the right direction for the rest of the year. It's an honor to train a horse like her. We will take her back to the barn and there will be a lot of petting her, and peppermints, and loving on her."

"I guess there's some relief because naysayers were saying she's done, no horse has come back and all of that," Jackson said. "She showed the stamina and endurance is coming back," Jackson said, referring to Rachel. "She's not 100 percent yet compared to last year, but we planned that her progression go slow so that she can last a whole season. We want the campaign to end up at the Breeders' Cup."

Fleur de Lis (Music Video)

Sizing Up Rachel's Competition in the Fleur de Lis

RACHEL ALEXANDRA, the 1-5 favorite, carrying the high weight of 124 pounds, will be making her third start of the year in the Grade 2, Fleur de Lis, and undercard for the Stephen Foster. We Rachel fans know all about her, but what about the other horses? Should we be concerned about the competition in Saturday's race? Let's look at their profiles:

JESSICA IS BACK, 5-1, carrying 116 pounds, ridden by Garrett Gomez, is a 6 year old out of Put it Back. She won two ungraded stakes races: the Nancy’s Glitter Handicap last year and the Ocala Stakes this year. She seems to be getting better because she finished in the money in her last 6 races.

Jessica is Back winning the Ocala Stakes in March 2010

MADE FOR MAGIC, 10-1, carrying 117 pounds, ridden by Omar Berrio, is a 5 year old out of Cape Canaveral. Most notably, she just won the Grade 2 Milady Handicap last month at Hollywood Park. Other than that she really hasn't won any other stakes races.

Made for Magic winning the GrII Milady last month

DISTINCTIVE DIXIE, 18-1, carrying 114 pounds, ridden by Robby Albarado, is a 5 year old out of Fusaichi Pegasus. You may remember her from a couple months back in La Troienne where she came in 4th. She has never won a stakes race. She was entered in the Fleur de Lis last year and came in 5th.

MULTIPASS, carrying 113 pounds, ridden by Jose Lecano, is a 4 year old out of Olmodavor. She has never won a stakes race.

So there you have it. It may not seem like much of a competition for first place with Rachel Alexandra in the mix. Evidently, her connections are attempting to groom her for the Breeders Cup run in November later this year, so perhaps this race is a sort of "training session" for her. Nevertheless, it is always exciting to see her race with whatever field there is!

REFERENCE: http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/5472304/sizing_up_rachels_competition_in_the.html?cat=9

Rachel Alexandra Workout Statistics Since Her Last Race

Rachel Alexandra Workout Statistics Since Her Last Race:

Date            Track    Dist.   Time        Surface     Condition      Rank

6/07/2010    CD       4F      0:49.20    Dirt           Fast              15/45
5/31/2010    CD       6F      1:11.20    Dirt           Fast               1/3
5/24/2010    CD       5F      1:00.40    Dirt           Fast              2/14
5/17/2010    CD       5F      1:04.20    Dirt           Sloppy          12/13
5/10/2010    CD       4F      0:50.00    Dirt           Fast                 ?

WORKOUT 6-7-2010

On Monday morning, June 7, 2010, a little before 6:00 am, Rachel Alexandra worked four furlongs in :49.20 over a fast track at Churchill Downs in Louisville Kentucky. With jockey Shaun Bridgmohan aboard she set fractional times of :12:60 for the first furlong, :25 for the quarter mile, then galloped out five furlongs in 1:02.80 according to the Churchill Downs clocker. She ranked 15th out of 45 horses that ran at that distance.

"She looked pretty, she looked good," said Asmussen. "Very smooth. That's what we were looking for, something nice and smooth like that."